Thursday, June 22, 2017

Global temperatures for the next 10 years

We had our wonderful warm time, now we go back to 70's cold.  Our gorming philosopher friends will have a tough time trying to argue out of this one.  But that's what happens to people who ignore physics or the scientific method.

While they can argue all the want about how radiation trumps convection in heat transport, we can concentrate on physics.  The big physics controlling our temps is the state of the ocean.  Water transports and stores heat 4000 times greater than air by volume.  So all our heat transport is water, not air.

If we didn't have oceans the whole planet would rigidly stratify, like Jupiter.  Lucky for us, the Pacific Ocean holds all its heat for a number of years, and then has to burst out.  That's called El Nino and this one was so huge that it squeezed out all our heat like a lemon.

Our Gulf Stream is generally not bothered by that cycle, and her you can see it in full force.  Last year it broke up for a while.

The Pacific is now dead.  It's hopeless quivering mass.  Normally, the northern Pacific current supplies North America with cool moisture.  The Gulf Streams hits us with hot and humid weather.

We would be quite happy if the Gulf air plume stayed over us forever.  Then we would have Florida weather forever.  But the northern air has to come down.  Normally, the nice Pacific sends warm air into the Yukon and then it descends.  But that's not going to happen for 10 years.

We've established a new, horrible pattern.  The Gulf Stream air plume goes over Europe, over nasty Russia and then comes down on us.  Very cold.

This is the latest moist air map.  Our cold air whips around the North Pole and then comes down on us.  If it can fight off the Gulf plume, then Texas stays warm and we freeze.

This is a wonderful time.  For the last few big cycles we haven't had these maps.  There's been no physics in climate studies.  At least you can see it here, and nowhere else.  :)

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Toronto Listings Panic

I was just up in country north of Toronto.  Listings are everywhere.  I haven't seen anything like that since the last time.  Trouble is that most people will want the peak price and will hold on for quite a while.  It was like that when I sold my house months after the last crash.  The people who were selling the house I wanted thought they could get the old price.  But I had discounted my old house by 20% to sell it.  Because it was an estate sale and was listed for a very long time, I eventually got the new house at 20% off.

So, all you people who have made tons of money flipping houses, take the haircut and sell.

Linux - computer survives massive Debian turnover

The King is dead, long live the King!  I always thought that was stupid, but Debian Jessie has gone and the new stable version is Stretch.  My main computer is always on 'testing', but the second computer was on Jessie, the old stable.  I was using that computer mainly for video processing, but now it's mostly for storage.  Anyway, I changed the /etc/apt/sources.list to Stretch, and let 'er rip.

aptitude update and aptitude upgrade gave me an awful lot of upgrades.  There were endless conflicts, but then it recommended aptitude --full-resolver, which fixed a lot.  Still mucky, and I did a few 'aptitude -f install' commands until everything was clean.  All working!